From 6 to 9 June, EU citizens went to the polls to elect the next European Parliament for the next term (July 2024 to May 2029). The preliminary results are as follows:

Main changes
The size of the European Parliament will be increased from 705 to 720 seats for the next term, after a previous decrease from 751 seats before Brexit.
The biggest winners for this election were the centre-right and far-right groups (EPP, ECR and ID). The left and centre-left groups (GUE, S&D) remained relatively stable, while the biggest losers were the Greens and Liberals.
The European People’s Party (EPP) has reaffirmed its position as the largest group in the European Parliament, with 189 confirmed seats, and bolstered by a significant presence in the European Council with EPP prime ministers (i.e. leaders from EU Member States who are affiliated to a party from the EPP) now taking up 12 positions in the European Council, their influence in the next European Commission will be considerably stronger than in the 2019-2024 term.
The Socialists & Democrats remained the second largest group after a small decrease in seats to 136, signaling a continued drop in their popularity from two terms ago, when it had more than 180 seats. Owing to changes in national elections, the S&D will only have 4 seats in the European Council (Malta, Spain, Denmark, Germany) going into the new term of the European Parliament.
Renew Europe, which was created at the last elections after a rename of the previous liberal group ALDE, took a severe loss at this elections, mainly due to the poor results of Macron’s Renaissance party in France, and a surprise decision Friday by Czech party leader Andrej Babiš to pull his seven MEPs out of Renew Europe, reducing their seats from 102 seats to just 74. Renew, who currently have 6 members in the Council (notwithstanding a new Dutch Prime Minister, and a new Council President to replace Charles Michel), will see their influence drop considerably, as they struggle to organise themselves internally.
The Greens/EFA, who lost more than 20 seats at this elections to 51, did not really see this elections as a big loss, given that they are back to where they were two terms ago when they only held 50 seats. They had scored a big win at the 2019 elections due to a strong “green wave”, but unfortunately did not manage to sustain the momentum. Nevertheless, they have since organised themselves quickly, re-electing Bas Eickout (NL) and Terry Reintke (DE) as co-presidents, along with a slew of 7 vice-presidents, including previous Commissioner for Environment, Oceans and Fisheries Virginijus Sinkevicius (LT).
The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) gained 14 seats, making it the third largest Group, although their influence in the Council is still considerably small, with only Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni and Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala as members, reflecting the disparity in the poor performance hitherto of far-right parties in local elections. The lack of representation at the Council will also undermine the ECR’s efforts to fight for a EU top position in the Commission, something that Meloni had spoken out strongly on.
The extreme left group (The Left/GUE) made up of a mix of extreme socialists and communists, gained a small number of seats but remain a small group in the Parliament. Nevertheless, they still form part of the left alliance in the Parliament (together with S&D and the Greens) when voting for issues such as labour and environmental rights.
The Identity and Democracy group is a relatively new group, created in the 2019 elections following the dissolution of the eurosceptic ENF and EFDD Groups (consisting mainly of UKIP MEPs) after Brexit, and the increase of the number of Italian Lega MEPs, which saw Italian Marco Zanni take over the Group as President. The group represents the most far-right part of the Parliament, and currently do not occupy any Council seats.
The rest of the 90 MEPs are either independent (“non-aligned”), or have yet to decide which group they will want to join.
Key ASEAN-related MEPs re-elected
The key MEPs overseeing ASEAN in the previous term of the Parliament have been reelected, including pro-trade MEPs Daniel Caspary (EPP, Germany), who chairs the Delegation for relations with the countries of Southeast Asia and ASEAN (DASE), as well as ASEAN shadow rapporteurs Sean Kelly (EPP, Ireland), and Svenja Hahn (Renew Europe, Germany).
Christophe Hansen (Luxembourg), have kept their seats in the European Parliament. who is the shadow rapporteur for ASEAN, has also been reelected. The ECR MEPs who have rapporteur ASEAN FTAs Geert Bourgeois (Belgium) and Jan Zahradil (Czechia) have also been re-elected. INTA Chair Bernd Lange (S&D, Germany) has likewise been reelected for the 6th time. Lange, who is an influential MEP in determining the European Parliament’s trade agenda, had highly favoured the EU-Vietnam FTA, although he and other SPD MEPs voted against the EU-Singapore FTA. The Greens/EFA MEPs who have overseen the ASEAN files Heidi Huatala (Finland) and Reinhard Butikofer (Germany) will not be in the next Parliament – while the Greens/EFA have traditionally voted against FTAs, the two MEPs had been known to be supportive of the EU’s trade with ASEAN. Nevertheless, the new Parliament will see changes in the membership of DASE, as well as important committees such as INTA and AFET, and files may change hands between rapporteurs.
Potential Impact on ASEAN businesses
Looking at the results, it may seem that European voters have indicated their frustration at the lack of economic growth and jobs, increasing cost of living, and the cost of having too many tough-handed regulations on climate and the environment, and perhaps the pressures of having lax immigration laws on society. Their preference to vote for right leaning businesses may be a call for the European Commission to tone down on the enforcement of the Green Deal, while at the same time, a reminder of the realities of a declining European economy in the face of growing competition from US and China.
The general shift to the right may signal an overall positive sign for businesses as this may lead to a more urgent need for the EU to start opening up its market once again, and strike trade deals with more trade partners. The centre-right groups also tend to be more pro-business, pro-trade, and less focus on issues like environment and labour which have dominated the previous Parliament’s agenda. Nevertheless, we would not expect a dramatic shift in terms of the EU’s overall priorities, and its geo-political position regards China.
What’s next?
The elections has kicked start a political process across the various institutions, starting first with MEPs joining or forming groups, and they have until 16 July to do so. Each group in Parliament must have at least 23 MEPs from seven EU countries. While the EPP and S&D looks to remain the two biggest groups, the third biggest group will be either the ECR or Renew Europe, depending on how many of the unaffiliated MEPs join from now until the deadline.
During this first plenary session, MEPs will elect their new President, vice-presidents and quaestors, as well as decide on the number of MEPs that will be sitting in each parliamentary committee. After the constitutive plenary, the committees will then hold their first meetings to elect their respective chairs and vice-chairs
The process of deciding the next European Commission president, through the nominating of lead candidates for each group, the so-called Spitzenkandidaten, will then take place. A big question is whether the EPP’s candidate, current President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will be elected for a second term, given that the EPP emerged as the biggest winner of the elections. The candidate would first need to be confirmed by the European Council, and then secure a majority in favour at the European Parliament. A speculated deal is that Von der Leyen will be re-nominated as President of the Commission, and the S&D will secure the Council president role with ex-Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa as their nominee, while the High Representative role will go to Renew Europe’s Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas. However, this leaves ECR, currently the third largest group, without a major role. Usually, negotiations will continue behind doors until an amicable arrangement satisfying the different groups, member states and political parties are found.
The newly appointed Commission President and EU countries will subsequently propose candidates for new Commissioners. Parliament will organise hearings of the Commissioner-designate so that MEPs from the relevant parliament committees can assess the suitability of candidates for their proposed portfolios.
The new President of the European Council is elected by its members, the heads of state or government of the EU countries, by qualified majority and should take office on 1 December 2024.