Elections for the European Parliament will take place on 6-9 June, as reported last September by ASEANcham. In the elections, EU citizens will elect representatives from local political parties who align themselves with one of the political groups in the European Parliament (or stand as non-aligned candidates). Moreover, five months after the parliamentary elections, the EU Commission’s President and Commissioners will be reappointed.

Since ASEANcham last gave an outlook on the elections, analysts have increasingly been predicting a shift to the populist right in the make-up of the Parliament [1] – a trend that is backed by the most recent polls [2]. In another noteworthy development, the incumbent Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has recently announced her intention to seek a second term as Commission President, and her candidature was formally backed by her party. Finally, while Bernd Lange (chair of the International Trade Committee) and Daniel Caspary (chair of the Delegation to ASEAN and Southeast Asia) have confirmed their candidature for the next election, Heidi Hautala (standing rapporteur for the Parliament’s relations with ASEAN), has announced that she won’t run in the next elections.

The reshuffle of seats in the Parliament and transition to the next EU Commission will have important policy implications. Most saliently, it is plausible that new majorities will oppose ambitious environmental regulation. It is not unlikely that flagship policy proposals which make up the European Green Deal – some of which also affect ASEAN businesses that export to the EU or are part of European supply chains – will be blocked or significantly watered down. In her bid for a second term, von der Leyen vowed to make Europe more competitive, hinting towards fostering the European industrial base and more industry-friendly climate rules. In addition, she suggests a new EU defense commissioner, indicating that the bloc might play a larger role in matters related to defense and security in the future [3].

It is unclear how the new make-up of Parliament and Commission will impact ongoing trade negotiations, including those with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. While forces from the populist right might want to prioritize economic measures that secure local jobs and production, rather than deepening international integration, an emphasis on increasing the EU’s competitiveness might also provide incentives to sign trade agreements and deepen integration into foreign value chains. Moreover, if the trend continues that the EU increases its role in geopolitical and security matters, it is also possible that it will play a larger role in attempts to mitigate instabilities in the South China Sea – even though its primary occupation for the next few years will plausibly remain the war in Ukraine.

Sources:
[1] ECFR, https://ecfr.eu/publication/a-sharp-right-turn-a-forecast-for-the-2024-european-parliament-elections/.
[2] Politico, https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/european-parliament-election/.
[3] Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-military-defense-slimate-second-term/.