EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced her line up of Commissioners for the next Commission, marking a key milestone in the handover process of the EU’s leadership following the European Elections.

While she did not achieve her self-imposed goal of having gender-parity in the College, and despite political hold up in Slovenia and a last minute change in the French candidate, von der Leyen still pushed ahead to reveal an impressive list of 26 Commissioner-designates, with their mission letters also published.

Only 5 current Commissioners (including von der Leyen) have returned to serve for a second term – Valdis Dombrovskis, Maroš Šefčovič, Dubravka Šuica, Olivér Várhelyi. Wopke Hoekstra, who replaced EVP Frans Timmermans as the Dutch Commissioner at the end of the current mandate will also be serving in the new mandate.

Some noticeable changes in the portfolios of the new cabinet include:

• Fewer Executive Vice President (EVP) and Vice President (VP) roles – the new College foresees only 5 EVPs and one VP – the high Representative/Vice President (HR/VP) in the next commission, whereas in the current College there are 8 (3 EVPs and 5 VPs, including the HR/VP). The differences between an EVP, VP and a commissioner, and how these appointments were given have not been explained by von der Leyen, although the reporting lines between the Commissioner and an EVP are alluded to in the Mission letters. Having EVP and VP positions also provide negotiating space to appease bigger Member States and groups. In the current Commission, an EVP role was given to a Commissioner from each of the main Parties (EPP’s Valdis Dombrovskis, S&D’s Frans Timmermans, and Renew Europe’s Margrethe Vestager).

• The High Representative/Vice President’s (HR/VP) role remains unchanged from the current mandate, and Estonia’s current PM Kaja Kallas will only be the fourth HR/VP since the role was created under the Commission. Kallas is a known Russia-critic and is thus expected to take a more anti-Russia stance. This could see her pivoting more towards the indo-pacific, a region that she is familiar with and had travelled to (in June 2023) in her capacity as Estonian Prime Minister.

• The traditionally important trade portfolio has been subsumed into a wider portfolio called “Trade and Economic Security”, indicating a shift in how trade policy will be used, more as a defence mechanism than for economic growth. While previous Commissions have had a single Commissioner portfolio entirely dedicated to trade, the new Commissioner-designate Maroš Šefčovič has also been given a portfolio covering interinstitutional relations and transparency issues, so it is possible that trade may not be seen as a high priority in the new Commission. The passing of the trade file to Šefčovičis also surprising, given that there are other Commissioners with more trade experience. Šefčovič is also expected to “work under” EVP Stéphane Séjourné for his trade portfolio, as dictated in his mission letter.

• A shift of focus back to economy and business – a number of the Commissioner-designates titles have a growth, economic or security element, indicating how the EU’s priorities in the next five years will look at growing its industry, ensuring that its industrial policy is protected and less dependent on external partners. Portuguese Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque is also the “Savings and Investments Union” Commissioner – this was something that was proposed by former Italian PM Enrico Letta, in his report “Much more than a market”, which serves to replace the Capital Markets Union (CMU) initiative that was launched in 2014 but never completed. The CMU envisaged creating a single market for capital in the EU

• Von der Leyen’s foreign policy is implicitly spelt out in her mission letters to HR/VP and Commissioner-designate for International Partnerships – in Africa, she foresees more investments through the Global Gateway and “mutual partnership”. With Central Asia, she foresees more agreements on raw materials. For Latin America and the Caribbean, it is about shared interest on security and energy. In “Asia and the Indo-Pacific” (which ASEAN is assumedly a part of), she has her sights on India, via a new EU-India Strategic Agenda. Unfortunately, von der Leyen was not known to have had much personal interest in ASEAN in her first term, and is likely to continue with the same lack of impetus for the region, as seen from her mission letters, with no reference to ASEAN as a region at all.

• Anti-fraud is explicitly mentioned in Polish Commissioner-designate Piotr Serafin’s portfolio, who will also cover more traditional issues like EU budget and the EU’s human resources. This is perhaps to serve as a reminder for the EU’s services to remain free from misconduct and elevate the presence of European Anti-Fraud Office, who have had a busy last mandate dealing with a number of scandals that had besieged the European institutions in the previous term.

• As widely rumoured in the run up to the big reveal, a new Commissioner for Defence and Space has now been appointed, the first time that defence has been mentioned explicitly in any Commissioner’s title. Given that defence has always been a competence of the member states, this will come as a novelty but the recent conflict in Ukraine and other conflicts across the world has led the EU to take a more intentional approach towards its defence policy. Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius is expected to help organise the EU’s fragmented defense industry and help member countries rearm while continuing to ship crucial weapons to Ukraine.

• It is also the first time that “Animal welfare” has been included in a Commissioner’s portfolio, as this is usually implicitly subsumed under more general health and food safety issues, a nod towards animal welfare activists, and importance towards treatment of farm animals. Ironically, the portfolio has been given to Hungarian Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi, who has had run-ins with the other Commissioners due to his Party’s right-leaning tendencies.

These are the Commissioners that would be of interest to ASEAN:

1. Estonian HR/VP Kaja Kallas will lead the Commission’s foreign policy, as well as security policy, which would include the EU’s position on the Indo-Pacific and conflicts in the Southeast Asia region, such as in the South China Sea. She will be expected to make multiple visits to Southeast Asia, and to attend the annual Shangri-La Dialogue.
2. Slovakian Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will be the de facto Commissioner for trade, and has been tasked to conclude the negotiations on the FTAs including those with Indo-Pacific countries (i.e. including Thailand and Philippines). He will oversee ongoing disputes at the WTO with Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as on the implementation of a slate of trade-related legislation in the EU’s “Toolbox”, including the use of trade sanctions, and will oversee DG Trade’s work.
3. France’s EVP Stéphane Séjourné’s role and involvement with third countries like ASEAN is still relatively undefined, but his portfolio includes the EU’s industrial strategy, with smaller parts on research, innovation and SMEs given to Bulgarian Ekaterina Zaharieva. Given Séjourné’s experience as French Foreign Minister and the political importance of France, we can expect that Séjourné will play an outsized role on trade and industrial policies such as investment, manufacturing, and digital growth, and wield significant influence on the important DG GROW, as well as DG TRADE to a certain extent.
4. Spanish EVP Teresa Ribera’s competition portfolio makes her less involved with third countries (although her predecessor Margrethe Vestegar had been active in engaging third countries). Ribera is a long time environmentalist, serving as Spain’s ecological transition minister in the current socialist government, and she will help to implement the Foreign Subsidies Regulation.
5. Luxembourg Commissioner Christophe Hansen will be overseeing agriculture and food, including on the Common Agriculture Policy, but also on agriculture imports. He was previously an MEP and shadow rapporteur for the EPP for several FTAs including the EU-Japan EPA and EU-Singapore FTA.
6. Dutch Commissioner-designate Wopke Hoekstra, who will oversee DG CLIMA, will look at climate cooperation with ASEAN member states, and possibly be involved in the host of Green Deal policies, including the carbon border adjustment mechanism (together with Commissioner for the Economy Valdis Dombrovskis) and the deforestation regulation (together with Commissioner for Environment Jessika Roswall).
7. International Partnerships Commissioner-designate Joszef Sikelai will be overseeing the EU’s global gateway initiative, which has a strong interest in ASEAN as a potential region for investment. He will also oversee DG INTPA, which looks at development aid to LDCs including in ASEAN. As the Czech Minister of Industry and Trade, Sikela would be in a good position to understand trade issues.
8. Hungarian Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi will oversee health and animal welfare issues, including for SPS issues and farm certification for exports.
9. Costas Kadis, Commissioner-designate for Oceans and Fisheries, will also oversee fishing related issues such as Illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing (IUU), shipping (IMO) and seafarers.
10. Greek Commissioner-designate Apostolos Tzitzikostas, who will oversee “Sustainable Transport and Tourism”, will also be in charge of the implementation of CATA.

Distribution of portfolios is more an art than a science, as some portfolios will overlap, while there will be dotted line reporting structures between some Commissioners and EVPs/VPs. Commissioners are also asked, in their mission letters from von der Leyen, to work together with other Commissioners on overlapping policies, to ensure that there are no issues over turfing.

Each Commissioner will now go through a hearing sessions at their relevant European Parliament committees, after which MEPs in the Committee will vote on whether to approve the Commissioner’s position. Commissioners that do not pass their hearings would need to be replaced by another designate from their country. The entire College of Commissioners will then be collectively voted on by the European Parliament, before starting its term on 1 December 2024.

While Commissioners’ terms are for five years, not all of them may stay for the full term. For example, former Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan resigned mid-way following a domestic controversy during the Covid pandemic, Executive Vice President Margaret Vestager took unpaid leave for 6 months to run for the EIB President (she did not get it and returned to the Commission after), while several Commissioners also left their posts early to run for the European Elections (to be an MEP). Commissioners are sometimes recalled to run in domestic elections, which can potentially disrupt the bureaucracy.